deck

with 84% of 2008 sales coming from ugg, the obvious concern is that either a) the retail environment will be

so harsh for the next few years that ugg will stagnate, or b) ugg is a fad that’s run its course. fortunately

we have google trends to provide ugg boots on sale timely global insight into demand. so far ugg seems on par with the last two

years. keep in mind, 2008 looked identical to 2007, but sales grew 67%. part of the black ugg boots nightfall

5359 strategy has been to keep supply below demand each holiday season, and to demand orders from retailers discount uggs

far in advance. management might have some insight they’re not willing to share with the public, but

quarterly inventory numbers reveal the truth. 2009 inventory is up 29% yoy. q2 is the only quarter with

inventory turnover less than 1x, indicating that this is a key reserve-building time of year for deck. as this

inventory is backed by orders, these numbers imply that ugg might be one of the few rays of optimism from

battered and cautious retailers. inventory i ugg boots for sale s a decent measure of future sales as deck generally only accepts

returns for damaged or defective products. allowance for estimated returns was 2% of accounts receivable at

the end of 2008.