uggs sundance the
with 84% of 2008 sales coming from ugg, the obvious concern is that either a) the retail environment will be so harsh for the next few years that ugg will stagnate, or b) ugg is a fad thats run its course. fortunately we have google trends to provide timely global insight into demand. so far ugg seems on cheap uggs par with the last two years. keep in mind, 2008 looked identical to 2007, but sales grew 67%. part of the black ugg boots nightfall 5359 strategy has been to keep supply below demand each holiday season, and to demand orders from retailers far in advance. management might have some insight theyre not willing to share with the public, but quarterly inventory numbers reveal the truth. 2009 inventory is up 29% yoy. q2 is the only quarter with inventory turnover less than 1x, indicating that this is a key reserve- pink ugg boots building time of year for deck. as this inventory is backed uggs boots by orders, these numbers imply that ugg might be one of the few rays of optimism from battered and cautious retailers. inventory is a decent measure of future sales as deck generally only accepts returns for damaged or discount uggs boots defective products. allowance for estimated returns was 2% of accounts receivable uggs sundance at the end of 2008.
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